Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (17) ◽  
pp. 9315-9323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre M. Ramos ◽  
Ricardo Tomé ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
Margarida L. R. Liberato ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Projected Changes

Evaluation of Historical and Future Cool Season Precipitation over the Eastern United States and Western Atlantic Storm Track Using CMIP5 Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 451-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly Lombardo ◽  
Brian A. Colle ◽  
Zhenhai Zhang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract This study analyzed the contribution of cyclones to projected changes in cool season (1 November–31 March) precipitation over the eastern United States and western North Atlantic Ocean. First, global climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were compared to Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) precipitation analyses for the period 1979–2004. The CMIP5 ensemble mean realistically reproduced the historical distribution of regional precipitation with no discernable effect because of model spatial resolution. Subsequently, the projected changes in precipitation on cyclone and noncyclone days under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario were quantified. While precipitation on both types of days was projected to increase, the increase on noncyclone days (23%) was greater than the increase on cyclone days (12%). The increase in precipitation on cyclone days occurred despite a decrease in the number of cyclone days. This increase can be attributed primarily to a shift toward more frequent extreme precipitation events coupled with a decline in light precipitation events.

Projected changes in extreme precipitation events over Iran in the 21st century based on CMIP5 models

2020 ◽  
Vol 82 ◽  
pp. 75-95
Author(s):  
M Darand
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Climate extremes have large impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems. Projection of changes in climate extremes is very important for long-term planning. The current study investigated future changes in extreme precipitation events over Iran based on 18 CMIP5 models for the period 2006-2100. National gridded data from the Asfazari database were used to evaluate climate model simulation. Results indicate that models with higher spatial resolution (CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3) perform better than those with lower resolution in capturing the spatial features of extreme precipitation events. Bias correction was applied to the models and the projected changes were assessed with the nonparametric modified Mann-Kendal trend test and Sen slope estimator at a 95% confidence level. Annual total precipitation (PRPCTOT) and rainy days (RD) were projected to decrease but the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes were predicted to increase significantly. The projected decreases were larger in northwestern parts than other regions, with PRPCTOT decreasing by 18 to 22 mm decade-1 and RD by 4 to 4.8 d decade-1. Although there were discrepancies in rates between the models, extreme precipitation events over Iran were generally projected to increase. An increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) was predicted for most regions by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, with the largest increase of 5 to 6.8 d decade-1 found for northwestern Iran. In eastern areas of Iran, where precipitation occurs extremely rarely, the number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 10 mm (R10) or even 20 mm (R20) were projected to increase significantly. In conclusion, these changes suggest an increased risk of flash floods in Iran from increased extreme precipitation under the RCP8.5 emission scenario.

scholarly journals Worldwide soil moisture changes driven by future hydro-climatic change scenarios

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucile Verrot ◽  
Georgia Destouni
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Rcp Scenario ◽  
Event Occurrence

Abstract. Soil moisture is a key variable in hydrology, ecology, and climate change science. It is also of primary importance for the agricultural and water resource sectors of society. This paper investigates how hydro-climatic changes, projected by 14 CMIP5 models and for different radiative forcing (RCP) scenarios to occur from 2006-2025 to 2080-2099, may affect different soil moisture aspects in 81 large catchments worldwide. Overall, for investigated changes in dry/wet event occurrence and in average value and inter-annual variability of seasonal water content, different RCP scenarios imply opposite directions of change in around half or more of the study catchments. Regardless of RCP scenario, the greatest projected changes are found for the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil water content. Especially for the dry-season water content, large increases in inter-annual variability emerge for several large catchments over the world; the considered RCP scenario determines precisely which these catchments are.

Projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation over central Asia by CMIP5 models

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (15) ◽  
pp. 5589-5604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojing Yu ◽  
Yong Zhao ◽  
Xiaojiao Ma ◽  
Junqiang Yao ◽  
Hongjun Li
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Projected Changes

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Yangtze River Discharge at the Three Gorges Dam

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve J. Birkinshaw ◽  
Selma B. Guerreiro ◽  
Alex Nicholson ◽  
Qiuhua Liang ◽  
Paul Quinn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Three Gorges ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
The Three Gorges ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Three Gorges Dam

Abstract. The Yangtze River Basin is home to more than 400 million people, contributes to nearly half of China’s food production, and is susceptible to major floods. Therefore planning for climate change impacts on river discharges is essential. We used a physically-based distributed hydrological model, Shetran, to simulate discharge in the Yangtze River just below the Three Gorges Dam at Yichang (1,007,200 km2), obtaining an excellent match between simulated and measured daily discharge, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.95 for the calibration period (1996–2000) and 0.92 for the validation period (2001–2005). We then used a simple monthly delta change approach for 78 climate model projections (35 different GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) to examine the effect of climate change on river discharge for 2041–2070 for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Projected changes to the basin’s annual precipitation varied between −3.6 % and +14.8 % but increases in temperature and consequently evapotranspiration (calculated using the Thornthwaite equation) were projected by all CMIP5 models, resulting in projected changes in the basin’s annual discharge from −29.8 % to +16.0 %. These large differences were mainly due to the predicted expansion of the summer monsoon north and west into the Yangtze basin in some CMIP5 models, e.g. CanESM2, but not in others, e.g. CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. This was despite both models being able to simulate current climate well. Until projections of the strength and location of the monsoon under a future climate improve there will remain large uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of future change in discharge for the Yangtze.

scholarly journals Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 2221-2240
Author(s):  
Jens Terhaar ◽  
Olivier Torres ◽  
Timothée Bourgeois ◽  
Lester Kwiatkowski
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Total Alkalinity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. The uptake of anthropogenic carbon (Cant) by the ocean leads to ocean acidification, causing the reduction of pH and the saturation states of aragonite (Ωarag) and calcite (Ωcalc). The Arctic Ocean is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification due to its naturally low pH and saturation states and due to ongoing freshening and the concurrent reduction in total alkalinity in this region. Here, we analyse ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean over the 21st century across 14 Earth system models (ESMs) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Compared to the previous model generation (CMIP5), models generally better simulate maximum sea surface densities in the Arctic Ocean and consequently the transport of Cant into the Arctic Ocean interior, with simulated historical increases in Cant in improved agreement with observational products. Moreover, in CMIP6 the inter-model uncertainty of projected changes over the 21st century in Arctic Ocean Ωarag and Ωcalc averaged over the upper 1000 m is reduced by 44–64 %. The strong reduction in projection uncertainties of Ωarag and Ωcalc can be attributed to compensation between Cant uptake and total alkalinity reduction in the latest models. Specifically, ESMs with a large increase in Arctic Ocean Cant over the 21st century tend to simulate a relatively weak concurrent freshening and alkalinity reduction, while ESMs with a small increase in Cant simulate a relatively strong freshening and concurrent total alkalinity reduction. Although both mechanisms contribute to Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century, the increase in Cant remains the dominant driver. Even under the low-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-2.6 (SSP1-2.6), basin-wide averaged Ωarag undersaturation in the upper 1000 m occurs before the end of the century. While under the high-emissions pathway SSP5-8.5, the Arctic Ocean mesopelagic is projected to even become undersaturated with respect to calcite. An emergent constraint identified in CMIP5 which relates present-day maximum sea surface densities in the Arctic Ocean to the projected end-of-century Arctic Ocean Cant inventory is found to generally hold in CMIP6. However, a coincident constraint on Arctic declines in Ωarag and Ωcalc is not apparent in the new generation of models. This is due to both the reduction in Ωarag and Ωcalc projection uncertainty and the weaker direct relationship between projected changes in Arctic Ocean Cant and changes in Ωarag and Ωcalc.

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