scholarly journals Response of lightning NO x emissions and ozone production to climate change: Insights from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (10) ◽  
pp. 5492-5500 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. L. Finney ◽  
R. M. Doherty ◽  
O. Wild ◽  
P. J. Young ◽  
A. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

scholarly journals Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3063-3085 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. S. Stevenson ◽  
P. J. Young ◽  
V. Naik ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
A Value ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12%), nitrogen oxides (31 ± 9%), carbon monoxide (15 ± 3%) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 ± 2%); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m−2; relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.

scholarly journals Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 4187-4218
Author(s):  
Paul T. Griffiths ◽  
Lee T. Murray ◽  
Guang Zeng ◽  
Youngsub Matthew Shin ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Chemical Production ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The evolution of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2100 has been studied using data from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We evaluate long-term changes using coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate models, focusing on the CMIP Historical and ScenarioMIP ssp370 experiments, for which detailed tropospheric-ozone diagnostics were archived. The model ensemble has been evaluated against a suite of surface, sonde and satellite observations of the past several decades and found to reproduce well the salient spatial, seasonal and decadal variability and trends. The multi-model mean tropospheric-ozone burden increases from 247 ± 36 Tg in 1850 to a mean value of 356 ± 31 Tg for the period 2005–2014, an increase of 44 %. Modelled present-day values agree well with previous determinations (ACCENT: 336 ± 27 Tg; Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project, ACCMIP: 337 ± 23 Tg; Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report, TOAR: 340 ± 34 Tg). In the ssp370 experiments, the ozone burden increases to 416 ± 35 Tg by 2100. The ozone budget has been examined over the same period using lumped ozone production (PO3) and loss (LO3) diagnostics. Both ozone production and chemical loss terms increase steadily over the period 1850 to 2100, with net chemical production (PO3-LO3) reaching a maximum around the year 2000. The residual term, which contains contributions from stratosphere–troposphere transport reaches a minimum around the same time before recovering in the 21st century, while dry deposition increases steadily over the period 1850–2100. Differences between the model residual terms are explained in terms of variation in tropopause height and stratospheric ozone burden.

scholarly journals Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. T. Archibald ◽  
J. L. Neu ◽  
Y. F. Elshorbany ◽  
O. R. Cooper ◽  
P. J. Young ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Chemical Production ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Review Model

Our understanding of the processes that control the burden and budget of tropospheric ozone has changed dramatically over the last 60 years. Models are the key tools used to understand these changes, and these underscore that there are many processes important in controlling the tropospheric ozone budget. In this critical review, we assess our evolving understanding of these processes, both physical and chemical. We review model simulations from the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Chemistry Climate Modelling Initiative to assess the changes in the tropospheric ozone burden and its budget from 1850 to 2010. Analysis of these data indicates that there has been significant growth in the ozone burden from 1850 to 2000 (approximately 43 ± 9%) but smaller growth between 1960 and 2000 (approximately 16 ± 10%) and that the models simulate burdens of ozone well within recent satellite estimates. The Chemistry Climate Modelling Initiative model ozone budgets indicate that the net chemical production of ozone in the troposphere plateaued in the 1990s and has not changed since then inspite of increases in the burden. There has been a shift in net ozone production in the troposphere being greatest in the northern mid and high latitudes to the northern tropics, driven by the regional evolution of precursor emissions. An analysis of the evolution of tropospheric ozone through the 21st century, as simulated by Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, reveals a large source of uncertainty associated with models themselves (i.e., in the way that they simulate the chemical and physical processes that control tropospheric ozone). This structural uncertainty is greatest in the near term (two to three decades), but emissions scenarios dominate uncertainty in the longer term (2050–2100) evolution of tropospheric ozone. This intrinsic model uncertainty prevents robust predictions of near-term changes in the tropospheric ozone burden, and we review how progress can be made to reduce this limitation.

scholarly journals The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 3461-3482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian C. O'Neill ◽  
Claudia Tebaldi ◽  
Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

scholarly journals Preindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5277-5298 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Naik ◽  
A. Voulgarakis ◽  
A. M. Fiore ◽  
L. W. Horowitz ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Monoxide ◽  
Hydroxyl Radical ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Concentration Changes ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the change in global mean tropospheric CO and NOx burdens (ΔCO/ΔNOx, approximately represents changes in OH sinks versus changes in OH sources) in the models, pointing to a need for better constraints on natural precursor emissions and on the chemical mechanisms in the current generation of chemistry-climate models. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH (3.5 ± 2.2%) leads to a 4.3 ± 1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to present-day climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about four months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, we analysed attribution experiments performed by a subset of models relative to 2000 conditions with only one precursor at a time set to 1860 levels. We find that global mean OH increased by 46.4 ± 12.2% in response to preindustrial to present-day anthropogenic NOx emission increases, and decreased by 17.3 ± 2.3%, 7.6 ± 1.5%, and 3.1 ± 3.0% due to methane burden, and anthropogenic CO, and NMVOC emissions increases, respectively.

scholarly journals The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 3685-3697 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan P. Gillett ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
Bernd Funke ◽  
Gabriele Hegerl ◽  
Reto Knutti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Experimental Design ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.

scholarly journals EC-Earth3-AerChem, a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Twan van Noije ◽  
Tommi Bergman ◽  
Philippe Le Sager ◽  
Declan O'Donnell ◽  
Risto Makkonen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model and describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and what the new features are compared to the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under pre-industrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The mean energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the pre-industrial control simulation is −0.10 ± 0.25 W m−2 and shows no significant drift. The corresponding mean global surface air temperature is 14.05 ± 0.16 °C, with a small drift of −0.075 ± 0.009 °C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 °C and its transient climate response at 2.1 °C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread among ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared to the ERA5 reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the ensemble mean surface air temperature climatology for 1995–2014 has an average bias of −0.86 ± 0.35 °C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.05 °C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant climate effects from the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 shared socio-economic pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091–2100) of 4.9 °C above the pre-industrial mean. A 0.5 °C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 °C.

scholarly journals Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation historical and projected changes

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 6247-6294 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
F. Dentener ◽  
J. McConnell ◽  
C.-U. Ro ◽  
M. Shaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Wet Deposition ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Slice ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Deposition Fluxes ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000–2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr−1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr−1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr−1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching > 1300 mg(N) m−2 yr−1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~30–50 % larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

scholarly journals Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2063-2090 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Young ◽  
A. T. Archibald ◽  
K. W. Bowman ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
V. Naik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
High Bias ◽  
Ozone Precursor

Abstract. Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 ± 23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is ~30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4% (−16%) for RCP2.6, 2% (−7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18%) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40–150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

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