scholarly journals Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (24) ◽  
pp. 10,840-10,846 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Haiyan Teng ◽  
Nicola Maher ◽  
Matthew H. England
Keyword(s):  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Mount Pinatubo ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Decadal Climate Prediction

The decadal climate prediction skill with focus on the North Atlantic region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuting Yang ◽  
Bo Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
The North ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Decadal Climate Prediction

<p>The skill of the decadal climate prediction is analyzed based on recent ensemble experiments from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 decadal climate prediction projects (DCPP) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LENS) Project. The experiments are initialized every year at November 1 for the period of 1960-2005 in the CMIP5 DCPP experiments and 1960-2016 for the CMIP6 DCPP models as well as the CESM LENS decadal prediction. The CMIP5/6 ensemble has 10 members for each model and the CESM ensemble has 40 members. For the considered models un-initialized (historical) ensembles with the same forcings exist. The advantage of initialization is analyzed by comparing these two sets of experiments.<br><br>We find that the models agree that for lead-times between 4-10 years little effect of initialization is found except in the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre region (NASPG). This well-known result is found for all the models and is robust to temporal and spatial smoothing. In the sub-polar gyre region the ensemble mean of the forecast explains 30-40 % more of the observed variance than the ensemble mean of the historical non-initialized experiments even for lead-times of 10 years.<br><br>However, the skill in the NASPG seems to a large degree to be related to the shift towards warmer temperatures around 1996. Weak or no skill is found when the sub-periods before and after 1996 are considered. We further analyze the characteristics of other climate indicators than surface temperature as well as the NAO to understand the cause and implication of the prediction skill.</p>

scholarly journals Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 3945-3958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramiro I. Saurral ◽  
Javier García-Serrano ◽  
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Leandro B. Díaz ◽  
Carolina S. Vera
Keyword(s):  
South Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
The South ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Decadal Predictability

scholarly journals Advances in Egyptian Mediterranean Coast Climate Change Monitoring

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1870
Author(s):  
Matteo Gentilucci ◽  
Abdelraouf A. Moustafa ◽  
Fagr Kh. Abdel-Gawad ◽  
Samira R. Mansour ◽  
Maria Rosaria Coppola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fish Species ◽  
Mitochondrial Gene ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Homogeneity Test ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Lessepsian Species

This paper characterizes non-indigenous fish species (NIS) and analyses both atmospheric and sea surface temperatures for the Mediterranean coast of Egypt from 1991 to 2020, in relation to previous reports in the same areas. Taxonomical characterization depicts 47 NIS from the Suez Canal (Lessepsian/alien) and 5 from the Atlantic provenance. GenBank accession number of the NIS mitochondrial gene, cytochrome oxidase 1, reproductive and commercial biodata, and a schematic Inkscape drawing for the most harmful Lessepsian species were reported. For sea surface temperatures (SST), an increase of 1.2 °C to 1.6 °C was observed using GIS software. The lack of linear correlation between annual air temperature and annual SST at the same detection points (Pearson r) could suggest a difference in submarine currents, whereas the Pettitt homogeneity test highlights a temperature breakpoint in 2005–2006 that may have favoured the settlement of non-indigenous fauna in the coastal sites of Damiette, El Arish, El Hammam, Alexandria, El Alamain, and Mersa Matruh, while there seems to be a breakpoint present in 2001 for El Sallum. This assessment of climate trends is in good agreement with the previous sightings of non-native fish species. New insights into the assessment of Egyptian coastal climate change are discussed.

scholarly journals Absolute seasonal temperature estimates from clumped isotopes in bivalve shells suggest warm and variable greenhouse climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Niels J. de Winter ◽  
Inigo A. Müller ◽  
Ilja J. Kocken ◽  
Nicolas Thibault ◽  
Clemens V. Ullmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variability ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Isotope Composition ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions ◽  
Bivalve Shells

AbstractSeasonal variability in sea surface temperatures plays a fundamental role in climate dynamics and species distribution. Seasonal bias can also severely compromise the accuracy of mean annual temperature reconstructions. It is therefore essential to better understand seasonal variability in climates of the past. Many reconstructions of climate in deep time neglect this issue and rely on controversial assumptions, such as estimates of sea water oxygen isotope composition. Here we present absolute seasonal temperature reconstructions based on clumped isotope measurements in bivalve shells which, critically, do not rely on these assumptions. We reconstruct highly precise monthly sea surface temperatures at around 50 °N latitude from individual oyster and rudist shells of the Campanian greenhouse period about 78 million years ago, when the seasonal range at 50 °N comprised 15 to 27 °C. In agreement with fully coupled climate model simulations, we find that greenhouse climates outside the tropics were warmer and more seasonal than previously thought. We conclude that seasonal bias and assumptions about seawater composition can distort temperature reconstructions and our understanding of past greenhouse climates.

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