scholarly journals Comparative analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models for simulating the daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation over China

2015 ◽  
Vol 120 (10) ◽  
pp. 4806-4824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiaohong Sun ◽  
Chiyuan Miao ◽  
Qingyun Duan
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models

scholarly journals European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5485-5506
Author(s):  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
Ségolène Berthou ◽  
Jesús Fernández ◽  
Silje L. Sørland ◽  
Roman Brogli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Horizontal Grid

Abstract. In this study, we evaluate a set of high-resolution (25–50 km horizontal grid spacing) global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), developed as part of the EU-funded PRIMAVERA (Process-based climate simulation: Advances in high resolution modelling and European climate risk assessment) project, and from the EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) regional climate models (RCMs) (12–50 km horizontal grid spacing) over a European domain. It is the first time that an assessment of regional climate information using ensembles of both GCMs and RCMs at similar horizontal resolutions has been possible. The focus of the evaluation is on the distribution of daily precipitation at a 50 km scale under current climate conditions. Both the GCM and RCM ensembles are evaluated against high-quality gridded observations in terms of spatial resolution and station density. We show that both ensembles outperform GCMs from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which cannot capture the regional-scale precipitation distribution properly because of their coarse resolutions. PRIMAVERA GCMs generally simulate precipitation distributions within the range of EURO-CORDEX RCMs. Both ensembles perform better in summer and autumn in most European regions but tend to overestimate precipitation in winter and spring. PRIMAVERA shows improvements in the latter by reducing moderate-precipitation rate biases over central and western Europe. The spatial distribution of mean precipitation is also improved in PRIMAVERA. Finally, heavy precipitation simulated by PRIMAVERA agrees better with observations in most regions and seasons, while CORDEX overestimates precipitation extremes. However, uncertainty exists in the observations due to a potential undercatch error, especially during heavy-precipitation events. The analyses also confirm previous findings that, although the spatial representation of precipitation is improved, the effect of increasing resolution from 50 to 12 km horizontal grid spacing in EURO-CORDEX daily precipitation distributions is, in comparison, small in most regions and seasons outside mountainous regions and coastal regions. Our results show that both high-resolution GCMs and CORDEX RCMs provide adequate information to end users at a 50 km scale.

scholarly journals European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
Ségolène Berthou ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Horizontal Grid

<p>In this study, we evaluate a set of high-resolution (25–50 km horizontal grid spacing) global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), developed as part of the EU-funded PRIMAVERA (Process-based climate simulation: Advances in high resolution modelling and European climate risk assessment) project, and from the EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) regional climate models (RCMs) (12–50 km horizontal grid spacing) over a European domain. It is the first time that an assessment of regional climate information using ensembles of both GCMs and RCMs at similar horizontal resolutions has been possible. The focus of the evaluation is on the distribution of daily precipitation at a 50 km scale under current climate conditions. Both the GCM and RCM ensembles are evaluated against high-quality gridded observations in terms of spatial resolution and station density. We show that both ensembles outperform GCMs from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which cannot capture the regional-scale precipitation distribution properly because of their coarse resolutions. PRIMAVERA GCMs generally simulate precipitation distributions within the range of EURO-CORDEX RCMs. Both ensembles perform better in summer and autumn in most European regions but tend to overestimate precipitation in winter and spring. PRIMAVERA shows improvements in the latter by reducing moderate-precipitation rate biases over central and western Europe. The spatial distribution of mean precipitation is also improved in PRIMAVERA. Finally, heavy precipitation simulated by PRIMAVERA agrees better with observations in most regions and seasons, while CORDEX overestimates precipitation extremes. However, uncertainty exists in the observations due to a potential undercatch error, especially during heavy-precipitation events.</p><p>The analyses also confirm previous findings that, although the spatial representation of precipitation is improved, the effect of increasing resolution from 50 to 12 km horizontal grid spacing in EURO-CORDEX daily precipitation distributions is, in comparison, small in most regions and seasons outside mountainous regions and coastal regions. Our results show that both high-resolution GCMs and CORDEX RCMs provide adequate information to end users at a 50 km scale.</p>

scholarly journals Multi-model ensemble of statistically downscaled GCMs over southeastern South America: historical evaluation and future projections of daily precipitation with focus on extremes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matias Ezequiel Olmo ◽  
Rocio Balmaceda-Huarte ◽  
Maria Laura Bettolli
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Model Ensemble

Abstract High-resolution climate information is required over southeastern South America (SESA) for a better understanding of the observed and projected climate changes due to their strong socio-economic and hydrological impacts. Thereby, this work focuses on the construction of an unprecedented multi-model ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for daily precipitation, considering different statistical techniques - including analogs, generalized linear models and neural networks - and a variety of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. The skills and shortcomings of the different downscaled models were identified. Most of the methods added value in the representation of the main features of daily precipitation, especially in the spatial and intra-annual variability of extremes. The statistical methods showed to be sensitive to the driver GCMs, although the ESD family choice also introduced differences in the simulations. The statistically downscaled projections depicted increases in mean precipitation associated with a rising frequency of extreme events - mostly during the warm season - following the registered trends over SESA. Change rates were consistent among downscaled models up to the middle 21st century when model spread started to emerge. Furthermore, these projections were compared to the available CORDEX-CORE RCM simulations, evidencing a consistent agreement between statistical and dynamical downscaling procedures in terms of the sign of the changes, presenting some differences in their intensity. Overall, this study evidences the potential of statistical downscaling in a changing climate and contributes to its undergoing development over SESA.

scholarly journals Can high-resolution GCMs reach the level of information provided by 12–50 km CORDEX RCMs in terms of daily precipitation distribution?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
Ségolène Berthou ◽  
Silje L. Sørland ◽  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
Urs Beyerle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Similar Distribution ◽  
Mountainous Regions

Abstract. In this study, we perform an evaluation of PRIMAVERA high-resolution (25–50 km) Global Climate Models (GCMs) relative to CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe (12–50 km resolutions). It is the first time such assessment is performed for regional climate information using ensembles of GCMs and RCMs at similar horizontal resolutions. We perform this exercise for the distribution of daily precipitation contributions to rainfall bins over Europe under current climate conditions. Both ensembles are evaluated against high quality national gridded observations in terms of resolution and station density. We show that PRIMAVERA GCMs simulate very similar distribution to CORDEX RCMs that CMIP5 cannot because of their coarse resolutions. PRIMAVERA and CORDEX ensembles generally show similar strengths and weaknesses. They are of good quality in summer and autumn in most European regions, but tend to overestimate precipitation in winter and spring. PRIMAVERA show improvements in the latter bias by reducing mid-rain rate biases in Central and Eastern Europe. Moreover, CORDEX simulate less light rainfall than PRIMAVERA in most regions and seasons, which improves this common GCM bias. Finally, PRIMAVERA simulate less heavy precipitation than CORDEX in most regions and seasons, especially in summer. PRIMAVERA appear to be closer to observations. However, when we apply an averaged precipitation undercatch error of 20 %, CORDEX become closer to these synthetic datasets. Considering 50 km resolution GCM or RCM datasets over Europe results in large benefits compared to CMIP5 models for impact studies at the regional scale. The effect of increasing resolution from 50 km to 12 km in CORDEX simulations is, in comparison, small in most regions and seasons outside mountainous regions (due to the importance of orography) and coastal regions (mostly depending on the resolution of the land-sea contrast). Now that GCMs are able to reach the level of information provided by CORDEX RCMs run at similar resolutions, there is an opportunity to better coordinate GCM and RCM simulations for future model intercomparison projects.

scholarly journals Downscaling of Future Precipitation in China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Using a Weather Generator

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Yaoming Liao ◽  
Deliang Chen ◽  
Zhenyu Han ◽  
Dapeng Huang
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rcp 8.5

To project local precipitation at the existing meteorological stations in China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the future, local daily precipitation was simulated for three periods (2006–2030, 2031–2050, and 2051–2070) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. These projections were statistically downscaled using a weather generator (BCC/RCG-WG) and the output of five global climate models. Based on the downscaled daily precipitation at 174 stations, eight indices describing mean and extreme precipitation climates were calculated. Overall increasing trends in the frequency and intensity of the mean and extreme precipitation were identified for the majority of the stations studied, which is in line with the GCMs’ output. However, the downscaling approach enables more local features to be reflected, adding value to applications at the local scale. Compared with the baseline during 1961–2005, the regional average annual precipitation and its intensity are projected to increase in all three future periods under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The projected changes in the number of days with precipitation are relatively small across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The regional average annual number of days with precipitation would increase by 0.2~1.0% under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, except during 2031–2050 under RCP 8.5 when it would decrease by 0.7%. The regional averages of annual days with precipitation ≥25 mm and ≥40 mm, the greatest one-day and five-day precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, are projected to increase by 8~30% during all the three periods. The number of days with daily precipitation ≥40 mm was projected to increase most significantly out of the eight indices, indicating the need to consider increased flooding risk in the future. The average annual maximum number of consecutive days without precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is projected to decrease, and the drought risk in this area is expected to decrease.

scholarly journals Regional, Very Heavy Daily Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1228-1242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sho Kawazoe ◽  
William J. Gutowski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Physical Conditions ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Synoptic Circulation ◽  
Cmip5 Gcms

Abstract The authors analyze the ability of global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and its supporting processes, comparing them with observations. Their analysis focuses on an upper Mississippi region for winter (December–February), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. CMIP5 GCMs generally reproduce well the precipitation versus intensity spectrum seen in observations to intensities as strong as 20 mm day−1. Most models do not produce the highest precipitation intensities seen in observations. Models show good agreement at the 95th percentile, while the coarsest resolution models generally show lower precipitation at high-intensity thresholds, such as the 99.5th percentile. There is no dominant month for simulated very heavy events to occur, although observed very heavy events occur most frequently in December. Further analysis focuses on precipitation events exceeding the 99.5th percentile that occur simultaneously at several points in the region, yielding so-called “widespread events.” Examination of additional fields during widespread very heavy events shows that the models produce these events under the same physical conditions seen in the observations. The coarsest models generally produce similar behavior, although features have smoother spatial distributions. However, the resolution in itself could not be identified as a major reason that separates one model from another. The capabilities of the CMIP5 GCMs examined here support using them to assess changes in very heavy precipitation under future climate scenarios.

Extreme Events in High Resolution CMCC Regional and Global Climate Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Antonella Sanna ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Myriam Montesarchio
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models

scholarly journals Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
John T. Allen ◽  
Mattia Marchio ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Rawinsonde Data

AbstractGlobally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.

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