scholarly journals Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (22) ◽  
pp. 7868-7874 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. S. Drijfhout ◽  
A. T. Blaker ◽  
S. A. Josey ◽  
A. J. G. Nurser ◽  
B. Sinha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Warming ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
Warming Hiatus

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Global Warming to Carbon Emissions: Effects of Heat and Carbon Uptake in a Suite of Earth System Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (23) ◽  
pp. 9343-9363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard G. Williams ◽  
Vassil Roussenov ◽  
Philip Goodwin ◽  
Laure Resplandy ◽  
Laurent Bopp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
System Models ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
Earth System Models

Climate projections reveal global-mean surface warming increasing nearly linearly with cumulative carbon emissions. The sensitivity of surface warming to carbon emissions is interpreted in terms of a product of three terms: the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing, the fractional radiative forcing from CO2, and the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 on carbon emissions. Mechanistically each term varies, respectively, with climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake, radiative forcing contributions, and ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake. The sensitivity of surface warming to fossil-fuel carbon emissions is examined using an ensemble of Earth system models, forced either by an annual increase in atmospheric CO2 or by RCPs until year 2100. The sensitivity of surface warming to carbon emissions is controlled by a temporal decrease in the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 on carbon emissions, which is partly offset by a temporal increase in the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing. The decrease in the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 is due to a decline in the ratio of the global ocean carbon undersaturation to carbon emissions, while the increase in the dependence of surface warming is due to a decline in the ratio of ocean heat uptake to radiative forcing. At the present time, there are large intermodel differences in the sensitivity in surface warming to carbon emissions, which are mainly due to uncertainties in the climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake. These uncertainties undermine the ability to predict how much carbon may be emitted before reaching a warming target.

scholarly journals The Life and Death of the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus Parsimoniously Explained

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristoffer Rypdal
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Thermal Inertia ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Life And Death ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Warming Hiatus

The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcings of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870–2017 is explained by this model, in particular, all features of the 1998–2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870–1915 and 1940–1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO with a small contribution from solar activity.

Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus

Science ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 348 (6242) ◽  
pp. 1469-1472 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. R. Karl ◽  
A. Arguez ◽  
B. Huang ◽  
J. H. Lawrimore ◽  
J. R. McMahon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Warming ◽  
Warming Hiatus ◽  
Global Surface

scholarly journals Warming Hiatus Periods to Become Increasingly Unlikely

Eos ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Schultz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Warming Hiatus

Anthropogenic climate change is reducing the likelihood of the Earth seeing another slowdown in the rate of surface warming.

Quantifying uncertainty in decadal ocean heat uptake due to intrinsic ocean variability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bablu Sinha ◽  
Alex Megann ◽  
Thierry Penduff ◽  
Jean-Marc Molines ◽  
Sybren Drijfhout
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Intrinsic Variability ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Decadal Timescale ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Ocean Variability ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
Global Surface

<p>Remarkably, global surface warming since 1850 has not proceeded monotonically, but has consisted of a series of decadal timescale slowdowns (hiatus periods) followed by surges. Knowledge of a mechanism to explain these fluctuations would greatly aid development and testing of near term climate forecasts. Here we evaluate the influence of ocean intrinsic variability on global ocean heat uptake and hence the rate of global surface warming, using a 50-member ensemble of eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model simulations (OCCIPUT ensemble) forced with identical surface atmospheric condition for the period 1960-2015. Air-sea heat flux, integrated zonally and accumulated with latitude provides a useful measure of ocean heat uptake. We plot the ensemble mean difference of this quantity between 2000-2009 (hiatus) and 1990-1999 (surge). OCCIPUT suggests that the 2000s saw increased ocean heat uptake of ~0.32 W m<sup>-2</sup>compared to the 1990s and that the increased uptake was shared between the tropics and the high latitudes. OCCIPUT shows that intrinsic ocean variability modifies the mean ocean heat uptake change by up to 0.05 W m<sup>-2</sup>or ±15%. Moreover composite analysis of the ensemble members with the most extreme individual decadal heat uptake changes pinpoints the southern and northern high latitudes as the regions where intrinsic variability plays a large role: tropical heat uptake change is largely fixed by the surface forcing. The western boundary currents and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (i.e. eddy rich regions) are responsible for the range of simulated ocean heat uptake, with the North Pacific exhibiting a particularly strong signal. The origin of this North Pacific signal is traced to decadal timescale latitudinal excursions of the Kuroshio western boundary current.</p>

scholarly journals Robust Seasonality of Arctic Warming Processes in Two Different Versions of the MIROC GCM

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (16) ◽  
pp. 6358-6375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masakazu Yoshimori ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Akira Oka ◽  
Tomoo Ogura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
Balance Analysis ◽  
The Difference

Abstract It is one of the most robust projected responses of climate models to the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration that the Arctic experiences a rapid warming with a magnitude larger than the rest of the world. While many processes are proposed as important, the relative contribution of individual processes to the Arctic warming is not often investigated systematically. Feedbacks are quantified in two different versions of an atmosphere–ocean GCM under idealized transient experiments based on an energy balance analysis that extends from the surface to the top of the atmosphere. The emphasis is placed on the largest warming from late autumn to early winter (October–December) and the difference from other seasons. It is confirmed that dominating processes vary with season. In autumn, the largest contribution to the Arctic surface warming is made by a reduction of ocean heat storage and cloud radiative feedback. In the annual mean, on the other hand, it is the albedo feedback that contributes the most, with increasing ocean heat uptake to the deeper layers working as a negative feedback. While the qualitative results are robust between the two models, they differ quantitatively, indicating the need for further constraint on each process. Ocean heat uptake, lower tropospheric stability, and low-level cloud response probably require special attention.

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