scholarly journals An impulse response function for the “long tail” of excess atmospheric CO 2 in an Earth system model

2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. S. Lord ◽  
A. Ridgwell ◽  
M. C. Thorne ◽  
D. J. Lunt
2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Gasser ◽  
Glen P. Peters ◽  
Jan S. Fuglestvedt ◽  
William J. Collins ◽  
Drew T. Shindell ◽  
...  

Abstract. Most emission metrics have previously been inconsistently estimated by including the climate–carbon feedback for the reference gas (i.e. CO2) but not the other species (e.g. CH4). In the fifth assessment report of the IPCC, a first attempt was made to consistently account for the climate–carbon feedback in emission metrics. This attempt was based on only one study, and therefore the IPCC concluded that more research was needed. Here, we carry out this research. First, using the simple Earth system model OSCAR v2.2, we establish a new impulse response function for the climate–carbon feedback. Second, we use this impulse response function to provide new estimates for the two most common metrics: global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature-change potential (GTP). We find that, when the climate–carbon feedback is correctly accounted for, the emission metrics of non-CO2 species increase, but in most cases not as much as initially indicated by IPCC. We also find that, when the feedback is removed for both the reference and studied species, these relative metric values only have modest changes compared to when the feedback is included (absolute metrics change more markedly). Including or excluding the climate–carbon feedback ultimately depends on the user's goal, but consistency should be ensured in either case.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-113
Author(s):  
Ewa Pawłuszewicz

AbstractThe problem of realisation of linear control systems with the h–difference of Caputo-, Riemann–Liouville- and Grünwald–Letnikov-type fractional vector-order operators is studied. The problem of existing minimal realisation is discussed.


Author(s):  
Gyundo Pak ◽  
Yign Noh ◽  
Myong-In Lee ◽  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Daehyun Kim ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Mingjie Zhang ◽  
Ole Øiseth

AbstractA convolution-based numerical algorithm is presented for the time-domain analysis of fluidelastic instability in tube arrays, emphasizing in detail some key numerical issues involved in the time-domain simulation. The unit-step and unit-impulse response functions, as two elementary building blocks for the time-domain analysis, are interpreted systematically. An amplitude-dependent unit-step or unit-impulse response function is introduced to capture the main features of the nonlinear fluidelastic (FE) forces. Connections of these elementary functions with conventional frequency-domain unsteady FE force coefficients are discussed to facilitate the identification of model parameters. Due to the lack of a reliable method to directly identify the unit-step or unit-impulse response function, the response function is indirectly identified based on the unsteady FE force coefficients. However, the transient feature captured by the indirectly identified response function may not be consistent with the physical fluid-memory effects. A recursive function is derived for FE force simulation to reduce the computational cost of the convolution operation. Numerical examples of two tube arrays, containing both a single flexible tube and multiple flexible tubes, are provided to validate the fidelity of the time-domain simulation. It is proven that the present time-domain simulation can achieve the same level of accuracy as the frequency-domain simulation based on the unsteady FE force coefficients. The convolution-based time-domain simulation can be used to more accurately evaluate the integrity of tube arrays by considering various nonlinear effects and non-uniform flow conditions. However, the indirectly identified unit-step or unit-impulse response function may fail to capture the underlying discontinuity in the stability curve due to the prespecified expression for fluid-memory effects.


Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.


2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (19) ◽  
pp. 10910-10917
Author(s):  
Jiang Zhu ◽  
Christopher J. Poulsen

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 2811-2842 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Chandler ◽  
L. E. Sohl ◽  
J. A. Jonas ◽  
H. J. Dowsett

Abstract. Climate reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bear many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In particular, marine and terrestrial paleoclimate data point to high latitude temperature amplification, with associated decreases in sea ice and land ice and altered vegetation distributions that show expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. NASA GISS climate models have been used to study the Pliocene climate since the USGS PRISM project first identified that the mid-Pliocene North Atlantic sea surface temperatures were anomalously warm. Here we present the most recent simulations of the Pliocene using the AR5/CMIP5 version of the GISS Earth System Model known as ModelE2-R. These simulations constitute the NASA contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. We provide discussion of features that show considerable improvement compared with simulations from previous versions of the NASA GISS models, improvement defined here as simulation results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene climate. In some regions even qualitative agreement between model results and paleodata are an improvement over past studies, but the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea in these new simulations is by far the most accurate portrayal ever of this key geographic region by the GISS climate model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterizations in the ocean model, have led to an Earth System Model that will produce more accurate projections of future climate.


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