scholarly journals Linkage between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the low frequency variability of the Pacific Subtropical Cell

2014 ◽  
Vol 119 (6) ◽  
pp. 3464-3477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingya Hong ◽  
Liping Zhang ◽  
Zhaohui Chen ◽  
Lixin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Subtropical Cell

scholarly journals Changes in the role of Pacific decadal oscillation on sea ice extent variability across the mid-1990s

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyerim Kim ◽  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Se-Yong Song
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
Far East ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Relationship Of

Abstract Characteristics of sea ice extent (SIE) have been rapidly changing in the Pacific Arctic sector (PAS) in recent years. The SIE variability in PAS during the late spring and early summer (i.e., April–May–June, AMJ) plays a key role in determining the SIE during the following fall when SIE is at a minimum. We find that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is the most dominant variability of sea surface temperature (SST) on the low-frequency timescales, differently influences the SIE in PAS during AMJ before and after the mid-1990s. While a positive phase of PDO during the previous winter acts to increases SIE during AMJ before the mid-1990s, it acts to decrease SIE during AMJ after the mid-1990s. Further analysis indicates that atmospheric circulation associated with PDO differently influences the variability of SIE in the PAS during AMJ by modulating poleward moisture transport across the Alaska or the Far East Asia peninsula. This results in the change in the relationship of PDO and SIE in the PAS before and after the mid-1990s.

Impact of the Pacific mean SST bias to the Atlantic-Pacific teleconnection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Li ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
Shayne McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Sst Bias ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency Variability

<p><span>A robust eastern tropical Pacific surface temperature cooling trend along with the strengthening of Pacific trade wind is evident across different observations since late 1990s, which is considered as a pronounced contributor to the slowdown in global surface warming. However, most CMIP5 historical simulations failed to reproduce this La Ni</span>ñ<span>a-like change. Previous studies have attributed this discrepancy between the multi-model simulations and the observations to the underrepresentation of Pacific low-frequency variability together with the misrepresentation of inter-basin forcing response. The underlying reasons remain unclear. Here, we investigate a hypothesis that common Pacific mean SST bias may diminish the Pacific-Atlantic atmospheric teleconnection and further contribute to the underestimated eastern Pacific cooling. Model results suggest that the CMIP5-like Pacific bias acts to reduce the Atlantic heating response by strengthening the atmospheric stability over the Atlantic region and therefore weaken the trans-basin variability. In addition, </span>the Pacific bias simulation with a strong SST cold tongue substantially undermined the positive zonal wind feedback, which also contributes to the underestimated Pacific cooling response. Future efforts aim at reducing the model mean state biases may significantly help to improve the simulation skills of the trans-basin teleconnection, Pacific decadal variability, and the associated Pacific dynamics.      </p>

Multi-decadal climate variability in the tropical stratosphere coupled to the Pacific

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
Oliver Wild ◽  
Douglas E. Kinnison ◽  
Rolando R. Garcia ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Decadal Climate

<p><span>Recent studies have noted that tropical mid-stratospheric ozone decreased in the 1990s and has remained persistently low since. Current analyses suggest that these observations are linked to dynamical processes rather than being chemically-driven, although this has not been fully explored. Using measurements and chemistry-climate model simulations, we show that 50 ± 10% of these observed trends can be accounted for through multi-decadal variability in the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) tied to the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, or IPO), via dynamical and chemical couplings. Moreover, accounting for this low frequency variability in the BDC can also help interpret previous observationally-derived changes in that circulation since year 1979. Overall, these findings demonstrate strong links between stratosphere-troposphere variability at decadal time scales and their potential importance for future ozone recovery detection.</span></p>

scholarly journals Global oscillatory modes in high-end climate modeling and reanalyses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yizhak Feliks ◽  
Justin Small ◽  
Michael Ghil
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Spatio Temporal

AbstractInterannual oscillatory modes, atmospheric and oceanic, are present in several large regions of the globe. We examine here low-frequency variability (LFV) over the entire globe in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and in the NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF ERA5 reanalyses. Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) is applied to these three datasets. In the fully coupled CESM1.1 model, with its resolution of $$0.1 \times 0.1$$ 0.1 × 0.1 degrees in the ocean and $$0.25 \times 0.25$$ 0.25 × 0.25 degrees in the atmosphere, the fields analyzed are surface temperatures, sea level pressures and the 200-hPa geopotential. The simulation is 100-year long and the last 66 yr are used in the analysis. The two statistically significant periodicities in this IPCC-class model are 11 and 3.4 year. In the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the fields of sea level pressure and of 200-hPa geopotential are analyzed at the available resolution of $$2.5 \times 2.5$$ 2.5 × 2.5 degrees over the 68-years interval 1949–2016. Oscillations with periods of 12 and 3.6 years are found to be statistically significant in this dataset. In the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis, the 200-hPa geopotential field was analyzed at its resolution of $$0.25 \times 0.25$$ 0.25 × 0.25 degrees over the 71-years interval 1950–2020. Oscillations with periods of 10 and 3.6 years are found to be statistically significant in this third dataset. The spatio-temporal patterns of the oscillations in the three datasets are quite similar. The spatial pattern of these global oscillations over the North Pacific and North Atlantic resemble the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the LFV found in the Gulf Stream region and Labrador Sea, respectively. We speculate that such regional oscillations are synchronized over the globe, thus yielding the global oscillatory modes found herein, and discuss the potential role of the 11-year solar-irradiance cycle in this synchronization. The robustness of the two global modes, with their 10–12 and 3.4–3.6 years periodicities, also suggests potential contributions to predictability at 1–3 years horizons.

Using Climate Divisions to Analyze Variations and Trends in Alaska Temperature and Precipitation

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 2800-2818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A. Bieniek ◽  
John E. Walsh ◽  
Richard L. Thoman ◽  
Uma S. Bhatt
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Coherence ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Highly Sensitive

Abstract By extending the record of Alaskan divisional temperature and precipitation back in time, regional variations and trends of temperature and precipitation over 1920–2012 are documented. The use of the divisional framework highlights the greater spatial coherence of temperature variations relative to precipitation variations. The divisional time series of temperature are characterized by large interannual variability superimposed upon low-frequency variability, as well as by an underlying trend. Low-frequency variability corresponding to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) includes Alaska’s generally warm period of the 1920s and 1930s, a cold period from the late 1940s through the mid-1970s, a warm period from the late 1970s through the early 2000s, and a cooler period in the most recent decade. An exception to the cooling of the past decade is the North Slope climate division, which has continued to warm. There has been a gradual upward trend of Alaskan temperatures relative to the PDO since 1920, resulting in a statewide average warming of about 1°C. In contrast to temperature, variations of precipitation are less consistent across climate divisions and have much less multidecadal character. Thirty-year trends of both variables are highly sensitive to the choice of the subperiod within the overall 93-yr period. The trends also vary seasonally, with winter and spring contributing the most to the annual trends.

scholarly journals Distinguishing the Quasi-Decadal and Multidecadal Sea Level and Climate Variations in the Pacific: Implications for the ENSO-Like Low-Frequency Variability

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (13) ◽  
pp. 5097-5117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kewei Lyu ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
John A. Church ◽  
Jianyu Hu ◽  
Jin-Yi Yu
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The North Pacific

Low-frequency sea level variations with periods longer than interannual time scales have been receiving much attention recently, with the aim of distinguishing the anthropogenic regional sea level change signal from the natural fluctuations. Based on the available sea level products, this study finds that the dominant low-frequency sea level mode in the Pacific basin has both quasi-decadal variations and a multidecadal trend reversal in the early 1990s. The dominant sea level modes on these two time scales have different tropical structures: a west–east seesaw in the tropical Pacific on the multidecadal time scale and a dipole between the western and central tropical Pacific on the quasi-decadal time scale. These two sea level modes in the Pacific basin are closely related to the ENSO-like low-frequency climate variability on respective time scales but feature distinct surface wind forcing patterns and subbasin climate processes. The multidecadal sea level mode is associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Aleutian low variations in the North Pacific and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies toward the eastern basin, while the quasi-decadal sea level mode is accompanied by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies centered in the central basin along with the North Pacific part, which resembles the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and its oceanic expressions [i.e., the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and the Victoria mode]. The authors further conclude that the ENSO-like low-frequency variability, which has dominant influences on the Pacific sea level and climate, comprises at least two distinct modes with different spatial structures on quasi-decadal and multidecadal time scales, respectively.

scholarly journals Shift Detection in Hydrological Regimes and Pluriannual Low-Frequency Streamflow Forecasting Using the Hidden Markov Model

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2058 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa Rolim ◽  
Francisco de Souza Filho
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Hidden Markov Model ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Hydrologic Time Series ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
The Impact

Improved water resource management relies on accurate analyses of the past dynamics of hydrological variables. The presence of low-frequency structures in hydrologic time series is an important feature. It can modify the probability of extreme events occurring in different time scales, which makes the risk associated with extreme events dynamic, changing from one decade to another. This article proposes a methodology capable of dynamically detecting and predicting low-frequency streamflow (16–32 years), which presented significance in the wavelet power spectrum. The Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm, the breaks for additive seasonal and trend (BFAST) method, and the hidden Markov model (HMM) were used to identify the shifts in low frequency. The HMM was also used to forecast the low frequency. As part of the results, the regime shifts detected by the BFAST approach are not entirely consistent with results from the other methods. A common shift occurs in the mid-1980s and can be attributed to the construction of the reservoir. Climate variability modulates the streamflow low-frequency variability, and anthropogenic activities and climate change can modify this modulation. The identification of shifts reveals the impact of low frequency in the streamflow time series, showing that the low-frequency variability conditions the flows of a given year.

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