A History of and Introduction to Climate Models

2005 ◽  
pp. 47-79 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
History Of

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone measurements at Arosa (Switzerland): history and scientific relevance

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 6567-6584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Staehelin ◽  
Pierre Viatte ◽  
Rene Stübi ◽  
Fiona Tummon ◽  
Thomas Peter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Global Environmental Policy ◽  
Chemical Destruction ◽  
History Of ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances

Abstract. Climatic Observatory (LKO) in Arosa (Switzerland), marking the beginning of the world's longest series of total (or column) ozone measurements. They were driven by the recognition that atmospheric ozone is important for human health, as well as by scientific curiosity about what was, at the time, an ill characterised atmospheric trace gas. From around the mid-1950s to the beginning of the 1970s studies of high atmosphere circulation patterns that could improve weather forecasting was justification for studying stratospheric ozone. In the mid-1970s, a paradigm shift occurred when it became clear that the damaging effects of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), such as long-lived chlorofluorocarbons, needed to be documented. This justified continuing the ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone. Levels of ODSs peaked around the mid-1990s as a result of a global environmental policy to protect the ozone layer, implemented through the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments and adjustments. Consequently, chemical destruction of stratospheric ozone started to slow around the mid-1990s. To some extent, this raises the question as to whether continued ozone observation is indeed necessary. In the last decade there has been a tendency to reduce the costs associated with making ozone measurements globally including at Arosa. However, the large natural variability in ozone on diurnal, seasonal, and interannual scales complicates the capacity for demonstrating the success of the Montreal Protocol. Chemistry-climate models also predict a super-recovery of the ozone layer at mid-latitudes in the second half of this century, i.e. an increase of ozone concentrations beyond pre-1970 levels, as a consequence of ongoing climate change. These factors, and identifying potentially unexpected stratospheric responses to climate change, support the continued need to document stratospheric ozone changes. This is particularly valuable at the Arosa site, due to the unique length of the observational record. This paper presents the evolution of the ozone layer, the history of international ozone research, and discusses the justification for the measurements in the past, present and into future.

scholarly journals THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ENERGY-WATER SYSTEMS AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (2F) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Safieh Javadinejad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Future Time Period ◽  
History Of ◽  
Climate Change Model ◽  
Policy And Planning

In order to develop a valued decision-support system for climate alteration policy and planning, recognizing the regionally-specific features of the climate change, energy-water nexus, and the history of the current and possible future climate, water and energy supply systems is necessary. This paper presents an integrated climate change, water/energy modeling platform which allows tailored climate alteration and water-energy assessments. This modeling platform is established and described in details based on particular regional circumstances. The modeling platform involves linking three different models, including the climate change model from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under the most severe scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, Water Evaluation, and Planning system and the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system). This is to understand the impacts of climate variability (changes in temperature and precipitation) on water and electricity consumption in Zayandeh Rud River Basin (Central Iran) for the current (1971–2005) and future time period (2006–2040). Climate models have projected that the temperature will increase by 7 °C and precipitation will decrease by 44%, it is also proposed that electricity imports will rise during a severe dry scenario in the basin, while power generation will decrease around 8%.

scholarly journals La représentation des surfaces continentales dans la modélisation du climat à Météo-France

2020 ◽  
pp. 067
Author(s):  
Bertrand Decharme ◽  
Christine Delire ◽  
Aaron Boone
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
History Of ◽  
International Climate ◽  
Land Surfaces ◽  
Computational Resources

Les surfaces continentales jouent un rôle non négligeable dans le système climatique de la Terre. Elles occupent d'ailleurs une place majeure dans les cycles globaux de l'eau et du carbone. Elles ont été prises en compte dès les premiers modèles numériques de climat et, avec l'évolution des connaissances, des capacités de calcul et de la demande sociétale, leur représentation s'est aujourd'hui considérablement complexifiée. Nous présentons ici une brève histoire de l'évolution du modèle de surfaces Isba (Interactions sol-biosphère-atmosphère) de Météo-France dans son utilisation à l'échelle du globe en la replaçant dans le contexte international de la modélisation climatique. Land surfaces play a significant role in the Earth climate system, and they are a major component of the global carbon and water cycles. The first numerical climate models took them into account in very simple ways. Through time the complexity of their representation has increased a lot owing to improved knowledge, larger computational resources and changing societal demands. We present here a brief history of the ISBA (Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere) land surface model developed at Météo-France when used at the global scale and how it evolved in the context of international climate modelling.

History of the greenhouse effect

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.D.H. Jones ◽  
A. Henderson-Sellers
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric Sciences ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Oceanic Response ◽  
New Directions ◽  
History Of ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
The Relationship

The greenhouse effect is now commonly accepted by the scientific community, politicians and the general public. However, the misnomer 'greenhouse effect' has perpetuated, and there are a number of aspects of the effect which are poorly understood outside the atmospheric sciences. On such misconception is that greenhouse research is a recent phenomenon; another is that glasshouses are warmed by the same mechanism as lies at the heart of the greenhouse effect. This review traces the theory as far back as 1827, highlighting new directions and significant advances over that time. Four main themes can be discerned: 1) certain radiatively active gases are responsible for warming the planet ; 2) that humans can inadvertently influence this warming; 3) climate models are designed to permit prediction of the climatic changes in the atmospheric loadings of these gases but that they have not yet achieved this goal of prediction; and 4) many scenarios of changes, and especially of impact, are premised on relatively weak analysis. This latter point is illustrated by an examination of the relationship between increasing temperature and sea level change (the oceanic response to atmospheric warming). Current research suggests that sea-level rise is not likely to be as high as had previously been anticipated.

scholarly journals On the consistency of HNO<sub>3</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> in the Aleutian High region from the Nimbus 7 LIMS Version 6 data set

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 3611-3626
Author(s):  
Ellis Remsberg ◽  
Murali Natarajan ◽  
V. Lynn Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Zonal Distribution ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
History Of ◽  
Sulfuric Acid Aerosols ◽  
Short Time

Abstract. This study uses photochemical calculations along kinematic trajectories in conjunction with Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) observations to examine the changes in HNO3 and NO2 near 30 hPa in the region of the Aleutian High (AH) during the minor warming event of January 1979. An earlier analysis of Version 5 (V5) LIMS data indicated increases in HNO3 without a corresponding decrease in NO2 in that region and a quasi-wave 2 signature in the zonal distribution of HNO3, unlike the wave 1 signal in ozone and other tracers. Version 6 (V6) LIMS also shows an increase of HNO3 in that region, but NO2 is smaller than from V5. The focus here is to convey that V6 HNO3 and NO2 are of good quality, as shown by a re-examination of their mutual changes in the AH region. Photochemical model calculations initialized with LIMS V6 data show increases of about 2 ppbv in HNO3 over 10 days along trajectories terminating in the AH region on 28 January. Those increases are mainly a result of the nighttime heterogeneous conversion of N2O5 on background stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosols. Changes in the composition of the air parcels depend on the extent of exposure to sunlight and, hence, on the dynamically controlled history of the trajectories. Trajectories that begin in low latitudes and traverse to across the North Pole in a short time lead to the low HNO3 in the region separating the anticyclone from the polar vortex, both of which contain higher HNO3. These findings help to explain the observed seasonal evolution and areal extent of both species. V6 HNO3 and NO2 are suitable, within their errors, for the validation of stratospheric chemistry–climate models.

scholarly journals On the consistency of HNO<sub>3</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> in the Aleutian High reigon from the Nimbus 7 LIMS version 6 dataset

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellis Remsberg ◽  
Murali Natarajan ◽  
V. Lynn Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Zonal Distribution ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Stratospheric Chemistry ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
History Of ◽  
Sulfuric Acid Aerosols ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Time Lead

Abstract. This study uses photochemical calculations along kinematic trajectories in conjunction with Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) observations to examine the changes in HNO3 and NO2 near 30 hPa in the region of the Aleutian High (AH) during the minor warming event of January 1979. An earlier analysis of Version 5 (V5) LIMS data indicated increases in HNO3 without a corresponding decrease in NO2 in that region and a wave-2 signature in the zonal distribution of HNO3, unlike the wave-1 signal in ozone and other tracers. Version 6 (V6) LIMS also shows an increase of HNO3 in that region, but NO2 is smaller than from V5. The focus here is to convey that both V6 HNO3 and NO2 are of better quality than from V5, as shown here by a re-examination of their mutual changes in the AH region. Photochemical model calculations initialized with LIMS V6 data show increases of about 2 ppbv in HNO3 over 10 days along trajectories terminating in the AH region on 28 January. Those increases are mainly a result of the nighttime heterogeneous conversion of N2O5 on background stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosols. Changes in the composition of the air parcels depend on the extent of exposure to sunlight and, hence, on the dynamically controlled history of the trajectories. Trajectories that begin in low latitudes and traverse to across the Pole in a short time lead to the low HNO3 in the region separating the anticyclone from the polar vortex, both of which contain higher HNO3. These findings help to explain the observed seasonal evolution and areal extent of both species. V6 HNO3 and NO2 are suitable, within their errors, for the validation of stratospheric chemistry/climate models.

scholarly journals Evolution of the Repository in Nizhnekanskiy Massif under the Influence of Climatic Factors

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-75
Author(s):  
B. T. Kochkin ◽  
◽  
S. A. Bogatov ◽  
E. A. Saveleva ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate History ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Current State ◽  
History Of ◽  
General Climate

The study identifies climatic factors related to external influences governing the long-term evolution of the RW disposal system at the Yeniseyskiy site. The paper evaluates the current state of knowledge about these factors and indicates most important research areas. These include: paleoclimatic studies in the repository region to clarify the climate history of past geological epochs; quantitative regional climate forecast based on global numerical climate models; special forecasts based on a general climate model of the region allowing, in particular, to clarify the depth of rock mass freezing during ice periods.

scholarly journals Potential effect of climate change on terrestrial biota

1992 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 79-79
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Crowley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Tropical Rainforests ◽  
Soil Weathering ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Terrestrial Biota ◽  
Marine Realm ◽  
History Of

There are several important changes in Phanerozoic climates that may have influenced terrestrial biota. Prior to the time of the terrestrial invasion in the early Paleozoic, an unvegetated landscape would have been associated with a larger seasonal cycle and decreased precipitation. Albedo and transpiration changes associated with the first appearance of plants should have changed this pattern, reducing the seasonal cycle and increasing precipitation. Enhanced soil weathering associated with vegetation should also have lowered atmospheric CO2 levels. During Pangaea time the giant landmass should again have caused very large seasonal cycles and decreased precipitation. Climate models invariably simulate below-freezing temperatures in winter on the supercontinent, a result at variance with inferred “equable” climates of the Jurassic. The large landmass should also have had very large Milankovitch variations. Seasonal warming during precession half-cycles of 10,000 years duration may have been associated with intermittent occupation of high-latitude sites that could bias interpretation of warmth in high latitudes. During the later Mesozoic (140–80 Ma) CO2 levels may have been several times higher than present. High CO2 levels should have affected the cycles of temperature and precipitation on land and also affected plants through the CO2 fertilization pathway. Subsequent decreased CO2 levels and continued breakup of landmasses may have influenced location of tropical rainbelts and perhaps the distribution of tropical rainforests. Numerous studies indicate that these changes, combined with expanded ice cover in the later Cenozoic, resulted in increasingly drier conditions in higher latitude land areas. The situation in the tropics is more uncertain, because there are conflicting signals from the marine realm as to the Cenozoic history of tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). If early Cenozoic SSTs were in fact low (as indicated by some δ18O records), then tropical temperature and moisture levels may not have been high enough to sustain tropical rainforests. This summary highlights some of the excellent opportunities for interactions between paleontologists and paleoclimatologists in assessing the effects of climate change on terrestrial biota.

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone measurements at Arosa (Switzerland): History and scientific relevance

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Staehelin ◽  
Pierre Viatte ◽  
Rene Stübi ◽  
Fiona Tummon ◽  
Thomas Peter
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Global Environmental Policy ◽  
History Of ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone

Abstract. In 1926 the stratospheric ozone measurements of the Light Climatic Observatory (LKO) of Arosa (Switzerland) started, marking the start of the world's longest total (or column) ozone measurements. These measurements were driven by the recognition of the importance of atmospheric ozone for human health as well as by scientific curiosity in this by then not well characterized atmospheric trace gas. Since the mid-1970s ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone have also been justified to society by the need to document the effects of anthropogenic Ozone Depleting Substances (ODSs), which cause stratospheric ozone depletion. Levels of ODSs peaked around the mid-1990s as a result of a global environmental policy to protect the ozone layer implemented by the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments and adjustments. Consequently, chemical ozone depletion caused by ODSs stopped worsening around the mid-1990s. This renders justification for continued ozone measurements more difficult, and is likely to do so even more in future, when stratospheric ozone recovery is expected. Tendencies of increased cost savings in ozone measurements seem perceptible worldwide, also in Arosa. However, the large natural variability in ozone on diurnal, seasonal and interannual scales complicates to demonstrate the success of the Montreal Protocol. Moreover, chemistry-climate models predict a “super-recovery” of the ozone layer in the second half of this century, i.e. an increase of ozone concentrations beyond pre-1970 levels, as a consequence of ongoing climate change. This paper presents the evolution of the ozone layer and the history of international ozone research and discusses the justification of these measurements for past, present and future.

scholarly journals Deglacial temperature history of West Antarctica

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (50) ◽  
pp. 14249-14254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt M. Cuffey ◽  
Gary D. Clow ◽  
Eric J. Steig ◽  
Christo Buizert ◽  
T. J. Fudge ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Temperature History ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Climate History ◽  
History Of ◽  
Climate Forcings ◽  
Earth’S Climate

The most recent glacial to interglacial transition constitutes a remarkable natural experiment for learning how Earth’s climate responds to various forcings, including a rise in atmospheric CO2. This transition has left a direct thermal remnant in the polar ice sheets, where the exceptional purity and continual accumulation of ice permit analyses not possible in other settings. For Antarctica, the deglacial warming has previously been constrained only by the water isotopic composition in ice cores, without an absolute thermometric assessment of the isotopes’ sensitivity to temperature. To overcome this limitation, we measured temperatures in a deep borehole and analyzed them together with ice-core data to reconstruct the surface temperature history of West Antarctica. The deglacial warming was 11.3±1.8∘C, approximately two to three times the global average, in agreement with theoretical expectations for Antarctic amplification of planetary temperature changes. Consistent with evidence from glacier retreat in Southern Hemisphere mountain ranges, the Antarctic warming was mostly completed by 15 kyBP, several millennia earlier than in the Northern Hemisphere. These results constrain the role of variable oceanic heat transport between hemispheres during deglaciation and quantitatively bound the direct influence of global climate forcings on Antarctic temperature. Although climate models perform well on average in this context, some recent syntheses of deglacial climate history have underestimated Antarctic warming and the models with lowest sensitivity can be discounted.

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